24/03/2026
New Zealand heads into autumn after a disappointing summer marked by cold, wet weather and a string of damaging storms, continuing a recent pattern of severe summer events like Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle. As that frustration sets in, global tensions add a new blow: Iran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after Trump’s escalation has pushed oil up roughly 30%, putting NZ diesel prices on track to exceed $3 per litre.
Higher fuel costs hit industry hard, especially forestry, which is heavily diesel‑dependent. With about 6 litres of fuel needed to harvest and transport each tonne of logs over typical distances, a $1/litre increase strips around $6–8 per tonne from forest owners’ returns. Rising bunker fuel costs are also pushing shipping prices higher. Freight to China is already up US$10–15 per cubic metre since February, and India-bound charters have become so expensive that some ships are diverting to other markets.
