06/08/2026
Let me connect some dots that most people in this industry aren't talking about yet.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center just reported a 2-in-3 chance that El Niño will reach strong or very strong levels by fall — potentially the most powerful El Niño event in 140 years.
Here's what a Super El Niño means for fire claims:
→ Extreme heat across the western U.S. — already above-normal temperatures dry out vegetation faster, creating more fuel for wildfires
→ Earlier, longer fire seasons — Washington has declared drought emergencies for 4 straight years. Snowpack is at half of normal. California's fire potential is above normal starting in July
→ More acres burned — AccuWeather forecasts 5.5 to 8 million acres in the U.S. alone this year. Globally, 150 million hectares have already burned — 50% above average before summer even starts
→ More fire claims on your desk — and carriers who are even more motivated to control scope and minimize payouts on contamination
But here's the part nobody's saying out loud:
El Niño doesn't just mean more fires. It means the fires that DO happen will be larger, burn hotter, and produce more complex contamination profiles. Wildfire smoke from these events carries particulate, VOCs, PAHs, and heavy metals farther and deeper into structures.
The PAs who are ready — who have testing partnerships, who understand wildfire contamination protocols, who document everything from day one — are going to win their claims.
The PAs who wait are going to be scrambling.
We tested 130+ properties after the LA wildfires earlier this year. Every single one showed contamination.
This El Niño season is going to produce more of the same. The question is whether you're ready.
What's your fire season prep look like? Are you already seeing increased activity? Tell me below.
