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12/07/2025
10/25/2025

🚨Melissa forecasted to be 2mph shy of CAT 5 at Landfall🚨

The latest 5PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center brings alarming news — Melissa is now forecast to make landfall over Jamaica, with winds expected to peak at 155 mph, just below Category 5 intensity.

08/16/2025

🌀With Erin now an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph winds, let’s look at just how strong it is.

For context, yesterday evening at 5pm, we were only looking at a Category 1 with 75 mph winds.

This growth of Erin is over the “35 mph in 24 hours” threshold needed for the qualification of “rapid intensification” - coming in at 85 mph in just over 17 hours making it a rate of 3.43 times greater than the threshold set by the NHC for classification as rapid intensification. The NHC threshold equates to a 1.42 mph increase each hour over 24 hours, and Erin’s increase was a 5 mph increase each hour. That’s a STRONG HURRICANE!

11/13/2024

First batch of spaghetti models from the GFS for Invest 99 on tropicaltidbits.com.

11/07/2024

The Weather Authority Meteorologists are tracking Hurricane Rafael as it tracks farther away from Southwest Florida.

10/07/2024
10/07/2024

To Open Shelters:

Emergency Shelters - Remember, there are very limited services; think lifeboat, not love boat! Those who plan to use emergency shelters should bring any necessary medications, cell phone chargers, toiletries, food, water, flashlights, bedding, and anything else they need to be comfortable.

A Special Needs-Only Shelter will open at Palmetto Ridge High School for electrically dependent or bedridden pre-registered clients who require nursing care. A family member or caregiver is asked to accompany the special needs person to the shelter.

Special Needs Shelter – Opening time 2:00 p.m. Tuesday, October 8

Palmetto Ridge H.S. - Registered Special Needs Clients and their caregiver.
Pet-Friendly
1655 Victory Lane.

General Population Shelters- Opening Time 4:00 p.m. Tuesday, October 8

Please note only the Special Needs Shelter above and the middle schools listed are pet friendly. Owners are responsible for the care of their pets. Please bring appropriate supplies. The pets must remain crated. The pets will not be permitted in the shelter area but will be housed in another location in the school.

Gulf Coast H.S. 7878 Shark Way
Immokalee H.S. 701 Immokalee Drive
Golden Gate H.S. 2925 Titan Way
Corkscrew M.S. (Pet-Friendly) 1165 Oil Well Road
Cypress Palm M.S. (Pet-Friendly) 4255 18th Ave N.E.
Golden Gate M.S. (Pet-Friendly) 2701 48th Terrace S.W.
Immokalee M.S. (Pet-Friendly) 401 9th Street
Oakridge M.S. (Pet-Friendly) 14975 Collier Blvd

10/06/2024

This is why I preach not following and obsessing over the center track line - and to expect forecast changes and adjustments.

From the NHC 11 AM discussion.
"The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues."

The big picture is unchanged. A powerful hurricane is heading towards Florida. There are still track and intensity uncertainties. Take this storm seriously. We will keep you posted.

10/05/2024

Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide

10/05/2024

🚨BREAKING: Florida declares STATE OF EMERGENCY!

⚠️Gov. DeSantis declares state of emergency ahead of Tropical Storm Milton for 35 Florida counties, including all the counties in the Tampa Bay Area.

10/05/2024

Latest overnight spaghetti models for Invest 92 on tropicaltidbits.com. Tight cluster towards Florida. Timing tricky but hours away are shown on each model. Wed/Thu impacts begin. www.spaghettimodels.com

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Estero Pkwy, Fort Myers
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