08/28/2021
...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.....LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida state line
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida state line
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.
Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office - www.weather.gov
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Ida was located over the Gulf of Mexico about 240 miles (385 km) souith-southeast of the mouth of the MIssissippi River and about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of Houma, Louisiana. northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and Monday night.
Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts - a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after landfall.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS incl. Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
- Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft
- Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL state line...4-7 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
- Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
- Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
- MS/AL state line to AL/FL state line including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
- Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.
The next advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 pm. CDT - www.hurricanes.gov
