10/04/2016
As always, Brian keeps us well informed.
Matthew – Major Impact in U.S. More Likely
Extremely Intense Hurricane Matthew is on track this morning, pounding Haiti and heading for eastern Cuba. We are fearful for what is happening now in Haiti and the Dominican Republic where tremendous amounts of rain have already fallen. Jamaica and eastern Cuba will also see huge rainfall totals in some areas.
The winds will pick up in the Bahamas through the day with every island in the country eventually feeling the impact of Matthew. There is no obvious reason why Matthew won’t maintain its strength or even get stronger during its 2-day trip over the Bahamas. All the major islands should brace for a Category 4 hurricane. In Nassau, where most of the people in the country live, we cannot say for sure whether Matthew’s eye will pass to the east or west, which makes a tremendous difference on where the storm surge occurs. As of now, the eye is forecast to come close.
And Florida is next. The odds of hurricane winds over the Florida coast have significantly increased. As we discussed yesterday, the high pressure over the Atlantic is forecast to strengthen pushing Matthew to the west toward Florida. While many possible tracks keep the worst of the winds offshore, that is not guaranteed. And you can have Category 3 or 4 winds offshore and still have Category 1 or 2 winds at the coast.
A Hurricane Watch is likely for a large part of the Florida coast this morning. This is the signal to begin real preparations so you can spring into action when a Warning goes up, likely tonight.
This is the MOST POWERFUL hurricane we’ve seen off or near the east coast of Florida in 37 years, so nobody is used to this situation. That one – Hurricane Floyd in 1999 – ended up missing (it was forecast to just miss), but scared everybody to death and caused an evacuation jam for the ages. You can bet emergency managers are thinking about that.
The odds are high that sustained winds of at least 60 mph with hurricane force gusts will affect the Florida coast. As of this morning, about 30% to 40% chance from Miami to Daytona Beach. And those numbers are deceivingly low. It is also deceiving to see the odds north of Daytona only 10 to 20 %. These numbers are based on the number of possible tracks that cause strong winds at each location AND how long it will be until those winds get there. The further in the future, the lower the number. So, as we go forward in time, the numbers get bigger just because the time gets shorter.
As of this time, the forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to move over or near the Florida coast bringing hurricane conditions over most of the coastline. The angle of approach brings the strongest winds in north of Palm Beach, but everybody will feel it, even inland in Orlando and south in Miami. The winds will increase in Miami Wednesday with the greatest impact Thursday in South Florida, and Central and North Florida Thursday night and Friday. Winds slowly lessen in north Florida on Saturday as the storm moves farther north.
The bottom line for Florida: It is imperative that everybody think about exactly what you will do if it you live in a threatened area and emergency action is required. Strong wind, coastal flooding, and erosion from monstrous waves are likely for the entire coast. Forecast changes are possible, of course. But there is no way to know which direction they will go – more or less threatening.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST HURRICANE THREAT IN MANY DECADES. Hopefully the worst will stay offshore, but don’t bet your life on it.
For Georgia and the Carolinas, there is a threat of destructive storm surge and damaging winds, but it is too early to know the odds. Matthew is likely to turn so it does not come square to the coast. How sharp it turns makes a tremendous difference in the coastal impacts. Currently most reasonable tracks would be very damaging winds and storm surge to coastal areas especially in eastern North Carolina.
For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, it is plausible that a kink in the jet stream sets up over the Midwest that picks up Matthew and speeds it right up the coast from Virginia to New England affecting the entire coastline. But it is also plausible that the kink sets up closer to the coast and pushes the storm offshore. It is too early to know.
Everybody’s task right now is to pay less attention to the models and more attention to the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center, and instructions from local officials. The NHC will not let you be surprised. So if you cut out the mental noise from over-analyzing the models and concentrate on whether you are ready for what the NHC alerts says is possible for your area, your Matthew experience will be as good as it can be.
Unfortunately, it is time folks. This requires your full attention from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras.
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This update was prepared Tuesday morning, October 4. Please check in with The Weather Channel, your local media, the National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service office.
