02/12/2024
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** Final Call with updates based on early morning model guidance has increased totals for most areas. **
* Overnight models have held firm on the southern shift that we reported yesterday and the cold conveyor belt of snow continues to position itself directly over the NEPA counties of Pike/Wayne/Monroe and plow right through the Wyoming Valley and continue through the center of the state. Totals will be upgraded for areas to the south as well including the Lehigh Valley. The temperatures will be marginal to start and this absolutely might begin as a cold rain for areas to our south as early as 9pm, and snow will begin after midnight. Once the low pressure intensifies off the Atlantic coast, the conveyor belt can get cranking and snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour with up to 3" an hour will be possible. The majority of your snowfall may come in a short window, maybe 3-5 hours of extremely heavy snow. This will make anything that falls that hard stick to everything and add up fast. In addition we will see winds 10-20 mph with guts 25-40mph at times. Some areas are also under a Wind Advisory.
** IF NECESSARY: We will adjust totals by the late morning if anything changes over the next few hours. I hope everyone was well prepared and followed us for the duration of this adventure. The flakes haven't started falling yet, but we tirelessly have worked round the clock to keep you prepared and aware of the intensity of these snow bands that threaten our area. There's always the possibility that we are wrong, we aren't perfect, but like I said the other night, "I've hit a lot more home runs than I have struck out." We at NEPA Storm Chasers will never back down on a forecast because we are afraid to be wrong. Part of learning in life is making mistakes, however if you don't give it your best shot every time, be willing to fail, be willing to be wrong, you will never get anywhere in this world.
* For those of you who send us messages last night, you got to see this forecast first. We held off on the upgraded snowfall totals because we wanted to see the overnight models and after seeing them and the morning models, we've seen enough. Thank you all for your support though this storm and always. YOU are the best weather community in PA. It's an honor to serve you all every day for the past 6 years!!!
Philadelphia Metro - Begins as rain, changing to sleet and eventually snow. 1-2" possible in the city with higher amounts in the suburbs possible.
Lehigh Valley - Begins as rain, sleet and eventually changing to snow. Snowfall rates may exceed 2" an hour at times. 4-8" likely.
Poconos - Begins as rain or sleet and quickly changes over to snow. Snow will be heavy at times after 1am and snowfall rates of 1-3" an hour at times will be likely. Southern lower elevations 7-11" and northern higher elevations over 1200' 10-14" with locally higher amounts. Ending in the early afternoon.
Northern Tier - Possibly beginning as rain or sleet but quickly changing over to heavy wet snow. Snowfall rates may be 1-2" an hour at times. A sharp cutoff will set up most likely in the west central counties but it's tough to pinpoint exactly where. Snowfall rates will vary from 6-10" in most locations and some areas as high as 10-14" with locally higher amounts possible.
Wyoming Valley "Snowless Dome of Solitude" - Likely begins as cold rain or sleet but changing over to all snow after 1am. Snowfall rates may exceed 2-3" an hour at times. Highest amounts will be at higher elevations but it appears that even the lower valley cities will see 7-11" and there is a potential for this to be higher as the Jackpot Zone may situate itself directly over the valley. This is still up in the air. Northern parts of the region and higher elevations 10-14" of snow is likely. Locally higher amounts possible.
Susquehanna Valley - Rain to start or sleet changing over quickly to snow. Snow may be heavy at times 1-2" an hour is possible. Snowfall will be heavy and wet and could exceed 7-11" in the northern valley cities and 6-10" in the southern valleys.
Coal Region - Begins as a cold rain or sleet and changes over to snow after midnight. Snow will be very heavy at times, rates as high as 2" an hour are likely. Lower elevations 6-10" of snow and higher amounts are possible. Higher elevations 7-11" with locally higher totals likely.
Central Counties - Rain, sleet or snow begins around midnight changing over to heavy wet snow. Snowfall rates may exceed 1-2" an hour at times. Heavier amounts to the east where 7-11" is likely with locally higher amounts. Further west 6-10"
Western Counties - Begins as rain and changes quickly to snow. Wide range in totals is possible as a sharp cutoff will limit totals farther west. Only 1-4" is likely in Erie and the far northwest. Further south, 3-6" and even 4-8" plus is likely. Farther east 6-10" especially in the highest elevations of the Appalachians.
South Central counties - Brief period of sleet or rain changing to snow. Snow will be heavy at times 1-2" an hour possible. Snowfall will be a general 6-10" range for most places with the higher totals in the highest elevations.
- Espresso
