10/27/2021
Stay weather aware this evening into the early morning tomorrow. 10/27/21.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXPANDS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... Wednesday will be mainly dry ahead of an increasing risk of strong to severe thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk slightly to include more of Escambia (AL) and Washington counties, joining all of our local coastal counties (Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) in the zone where storms will be most likely to become severe on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Again, MOST of the daytime hours on Wednesday will be dry. There will be a very low chance of a few storms becoming severe in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties after 5PM Wednesday evening, although this idea is much more uncertain compared to the high confidence we have in the overall setup for a squall line to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Don't get caught up in the convective outlook details at this point, just please understand we all have a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Have a way to get urgent weather warnings tomorrow night. You need something that will wake you up if your specific location goes under a tornado warning. More forecast notes are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT - HOUR-BY-HOUR... Most communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida will simply have heavy rain at times with occasional thunder Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe, however. Most won't, but inevitably with this kind of atmospheric setup, there is a chance for a few severe storms capable of producing a tornado or two and damaging straight line winds. Most of the daytime hours on Wednesday will be dry with only spotty showers and storms around. There is a low-end risk of a few severe storms in Mobile and Baldwin counties and points west from 5PM to when the "main event" starts late Wednesday evening. Rain chances will increase slightly from 6PM to 9PM, but even in that 3 hour window, I think most of south Alabama and northwest Florida has a good chance to be dry. Rain and storms will grow in coverage across the region after 9PM with a large batch of storms likely to cross the area in the overnight hours. These storms are the ones that have the greatest chance of being severe. This means you must have a way to get tornado warnings in the overnight hours before you go to sleep Wednesday night.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING - WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... The main 12 hour window has not changed for when severe storms are expected: 8PM Wednesday to 8AM Thursday looks to be the 12 hour window for when storms are MOST likely to happen. The core of that risk will happen between 1AM and 7AM on Thursday morning. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night before you go to sleep. Storms will enter from the west and gradually move across the region, likely exiting to our east no later than 8-9AM.
UPDATED: GUSTY WINDS & TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS... The primary severe weather hazards on Wednesday night into Thursday will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will almost certainly be maximized in areas closer to the immediate coast, thus if you are in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, your tornado risk may be just a bit higher compared to areas farther inland. MOST communities will simply have rain at times Wednesday into Thursday. That is what you should expect, with rain for most and MOST (not all) of the severe weather issues being to our west. The concern is that one or two isolated severe storms may happen ahead of an advancing line of storms Wednesday night that may produce a few tornadoes or gusty winds. In addition, the line of storms that moves through could produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Isolated instances of large hail and flash flooding may also be possible, although those hazard risks are less compared to the damaging wind and tornado risks.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS... If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Wednesday) in the morning forecast video and long form text discussion. Have a nice Tuesday evening!
