02/29/2024
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-2024 Severe Weather Season Forecast-
Our severe weather season forecast is made up of analogs, current and forecasted oceanic temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, model guidance, historical trends (tornado alley is shifting), and my personal thinking.
With a weakening El Nino and a warming Gulf of Mexico (dew points sitting in the 70s already), the potential for severe weather will increase as a stronger Pacific jet will allow for an active pattern to settle in, especially in April-June with an increased probability for a derecho or two July-September. Most long-range ensemble guidance agrees and signals above-average precipitation for the spring months. With a La Nina developing this summer, a large ridge in the west could build, which increases derecho chances as they thrive off of the edges of a high-pressure (""ring of fire") pattern.
With most troughs expected to eject into the Southern Plains, the best chance for more tornadoes than normal (strong tornadoes) is in the dark red area. Analogs signal a transition in the ENSO region having a big impact on overall tornado potential as a muggy and warm spring and summer are expected. This and a strong Pacific jet are prime for many chances of tornadoes. We don't know if there'll be tornado outbreaks, but there typically is each season. A quiet season for tornadoes is expected in most of Michigan and maybe into northern Wisconsin.
Overall, much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley will experience more tornadoes than normal this spring and summer with favorable conditions later this summer for derechos as moisture builds. We will be storm-chasing this spring and summer, and have severe weather forecasts for each event.