08/18/2026
Jack's Weather Report | 8.18.26 6:41 AM
Good Tuesday morning ☀,
🌦 Looks like we may have an interesting weather season ahead, starting September 1. I believe we have 2 months before it starts. NOAA’s latest August 13 update shows El Niño is here and strengthening quickly, with more than a 90% chance of becoming a very strong El Niño this fall/winter.
The latest Niño-3.4 reading is around +1.8°C, and NOAA currently gives a 69% chance that October–December reaches an exceptionally strong level.
For Santa Barbara and Southern California, this could mean a greater potential for a stormier, wetter winter, including more Pacific storms and atmospheric rivers. That said, a strong El Niño doesn’t guarantee a wet winter.
NOAA expects El Niño to continue strengthening through the end of 2026. Compared with what we were seeing this spring, winter 2026–27 now looks increasingly favorable for a wet and stormy pattern.
The next big NOAA update is September 10.
Weather this week: continued warm, summer-like conditions.
More to come as we get closer to the season.