01/24/2026
📢🚨HVW Preliminary Storm Forecast : Sun 1/25 - Mon 1/26🚨📢
🚨 Storm Update #8🚨
📢Synopsis📢
Storm is now 36 hours out and confidence is moderate/high (See Wild Cards)
◾Start Time: 7AM- 10AM Sunday 🕕
◾End Time: 3AM-8AM Monday ( See Wild Cards) 🕚
◾Extreme Cold and Dangerous Wind Chills Fri PM/Sat 🥶
◾Dangerous to impossible travel 🚙
◾Snowfall Rates 1-2”+ per hour 📈
◾Low visibility 🌫️
◾Snowfall accumulations:📏(See snow map)
.... South of I-84: 10" to 14" (mixing with sleet is a concern)
.... I-84 corridor on North: 14" to 18" (Localized amounts 20”)
.... Catskills: 18" to 24" possible in highest elevations
◾Long duration event 18+ hours ⏳
🔎🧐Wild Cards/Forecast Concerns
1️⃣- 👀 Needs to be now casted :
Mesoscale banding, for the long time followers, y'all know this is always top of the list! Where these bands set up, remain stationary or pivot will see the maximum snow totals. These often are never nailed down, and are Now-Casted during the event.
2️⃣- 📈 Rising Concern :
The final track and position of the coastal low, as this will determine how far north we need a warm nose aloft that can impact precipitation types, a period of sleet in southern Westchester and Rockland can’t be ruled out, even with surface temps in the 20’s. This would keep totals on lower end of the scale, just how far north this can reach is unknown at this time frame. The NAM model isn’t yet in its best accuracy window but has begun to sniff this potential. Hard to call it a trend yet as it has waffled between its morning, afternoon and evening runs. We will need to digest the 00z run tonight as this is a critical component to the final outcome.
3️⃣- 📈 Rising Concern :
Dry Slotting will need to be monitored, whenever you have a transfer of energy to a coastal low, you need to be aware of a dry slot punching in from the SW. This can reduce snowfall rates, lull precipitation, eat away at snow flake growth and lead to weak dendrites and inefficient accumulations , again the lower Hudson Valley is at highest risk for this. Once again the 18z NAM runs had a very defined dry slot that diminishes precipitation between 1-3AM. While intense snowfall rates Sunday late afternoon through midnight will account for a good majority of snowfall, this would certainly step down the highest accumulations.
4️⃣- 📉 Declining Concern :
Down-sloping off the Berkshires and Taconics, as the coastal low takes over, upper level winds will shift to easterly, as the winds are forced up Andover the terrain a shadow effect is possible across eastern Columbia and Dutchess. The signature isn’t strong, but could slight reduce totals in those locations. On the flip side, upslope on the eastern facing slopes of the higher terrain will lead to snowfall maximum across the eastern Catskills.
Afternoon and evening data has continued to support a widespread impact from a winter storm Sunday AM into Monday AM.
Short range guidance specifically the NAM model has been a bit less steadfast in its solutions. Normally it’s easy to dismiss outlier runs, which at the moment this is certainly that. With that said, we have already had some conversation behind the scenes about two of the items the NAM has been portraying, which is the location and timing of a dry slot, and how far north mid level warming can progress and mix sleet with snow.
When a hires model that excels at spotting these details begins to hint, you must listen. Good reason to believe that the NAM is now handling the time of transfer between the decaying inland low and the secondary low. It also has a tendency to over forecast mid level warming due to over amplifying the system. The reason we release snow maps in three phases is we’ve learned you can’t plant flag on winter storms three days out, to much can change. After tonight’s prelim we will post the final tomorrow- once we post a final we do not change the forecast. We focus on limiting the changes between forecast and simply shrink the ranges down, and narrow in on more specific impacts.
Because of how heavily weighted the impacts of mixing and dry slotting can be on the region, we will keep a level headed approach on this prelim and take the final stance on tomorrow’s final.
