10/23/2026
The replacement HVAC market has quietly tipped toward electric. Between July 2022 and June 2024, U.S. shipments of heat pumps outsold gas furnace shipments by 28%, according to an analysis of AHRI shipment data, more than double the 12% lead heat pumps held back in 2022.
Shipment totals track what manufacturers sold into the distribution channel, not confirmed installs in homes, but the trend itself has been consistent for three years running: when a system fails, more homeowners are choosing a heat pump over a like-for-like furnace replacement.
Heat pumps typically cost more upfront than a furnace, even before factoring in any electrical work a home might need. Financing can help homeowners make that switch at the moment of replacement rather than defaulting back to gas because of the price gap.