09/22/2025
Another analysis posted by Ed Piotrowski WPDE
TROPICAL UPDATE
1 PM MONDAY 9.22.2025
The tropics spring to life this week. Here's a breakdown of three systems.
🌀HURRICANE GABRIELLE - When it comes to hurricanes this season, it's go big or go home. Gabrielle has quickly strengthened and may reach Category 4 status later today. Fortunately, it poses no threat to land. So far this season, the only other hurricane was Erin, which became a powerful Category 5. For the Carolinas, Gabrielle’s only impact will be a moderate rip current risk today and tomorrow, with waves of 1–3 feet, smaller than what we experienced with Erin.
🔴DISTURBANCE #2 - A tropical wave in the Atlantic has a high chance of development. Guidance suggests it could strengthen into a hurricane by the weekend. A majority of the ensemble models indicate this system could follow a similar path to Gabrielle's, but perhaps a bit further west. Bermuda should keep a close eye on this one.
🟠DISTURBANCE #1 - As you may recall from my previous updates, I highlighted an area in green near the Bahamas that we would have to keep an eye on for this upcoming weekend. The disturbance tied to that setup is now east of the Lesser Antilles. It carries a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. Beyond that, the outlook gets fuzzy. There's a high degree of uncertainty regarding where it tracks and whether it even develops. It could curve safely out to sea like the others, or, if blocked, head west toward Florida or the Gulf.
For now, it’s a waiting game. Nothing here is cause for concern today, and any potential U.S. impact wouldn’t be until Sunday or Monday at the earliest. I’m not worried, and neither should you be.