01/20/2018
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1765857286771671&substory_index=0&id=490037614353651
*Thaw Now, Then Winter Comes Back Strong*
When we shared the winter forecast back in November, we talked about a few trends that were showing up at that time. We thought the winter would end up with more cold and snow overall compared to average, but we thought each month would be a little different. The historic trends from years past suggested December would be cold and snowy, January would be warmer with slightly below average snow, and February into early March would be harsh. So far we have followed that pattern pretty well, and the long range computer models suggest that will continue.
One of the long range computer models (that shows general weather trends and patterns) suggests that mild weather will develop and continue for the next 10-20 days roughly. However, that same computer model shows that the half way point of winter will be the warm pause in our overall cold season. Cold should build out west in early February, and that returns to the Great Lakes by the middle of February and could last into early March. Both the historical trend and long range computer models suggest this will be a very cold and potentially snowy time frame for the Great Lakes. While it is possible to pick up on big weather pattern shifts more than a week into the future, it is tough to impossible to pick up on the fine details like the chance for a big snowstorm. Of course we will have more on the weather pattern changes as we ride that weather roller coaster in the weeks ahead. In the mean time, I wanted to update those wondering if we still think February will be cold. The answer is yes, especially mid to late month.
