05/12/2026
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The 2026-2027 Super El Nino Chance - What does this really mean?
Three Super El Ninos have happened since the 1980s. We had one in the early 80s, late 90s, and middle 2010s. We are in the midst of yet another Super El Nino coming for this next season.
The 80s and 90s El Nino had record breaking rainfall during the main rainy season in our area. Is there a chance it can repeat? Many are going with it, yes.
However, we must remember that El Nino happening down there is not the only way we get this. We also have to look at other areas in the ocean. The mid 2010s El Nino was a Super El Nino as well, but it did have something the other two did not. It was drier than normal, even with all the media hype. Can we make the same mistake twice?
There are things of interest I am seeing on this one that I will closely monitor.
1. The 80s and 90s El Ninos had colder than normal waters between Southern California and Hawaii.
2. The 2015 El Nino had warmer than normal waters between Southern California and Hawaii.
3. Our waters now are warmer than normal, resembling a 2015 pattern in that area. This will be what I will be closely monitoring and a scientific paper will be published and written by me should that be an indication an El Nino can be dry.
2015's El Nino however had a wetter than normal Summer in Southern California as hurricanes made it further here due to the warmer waters. So, it is a toss up at this point, but my scientific reasoning is there ...
Raiden Storm
Master General Meteorologist
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