19/06/2026
South Africa is 360+ days loadshedding free. Here's why we're still watching:
- Eskom deserves credit. The grid is better than it has been in years. The Generation Recovery Plan is working. Over 360 consecutive days without a scheduled outage is not nothing.
- Here's what is also true: Eskom's own Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030 flags 2029 as a high-likelihood loadshedding year. Their words, their document. The driver is straightforward: 5,260 MW of coal capacity retiring, gas replacements behind schedule, diesel turbines as the bridge.
- We watched 2022 happen. And also 2023 happen. Steel fabricators losing shift hours, agricultural operations watching irrigation pumps die. Data centres burning diesel at R25 a litre. The businesses that came out of that period in the best shape were the ones who had sorted their energy before anyone said Stage 6.
Three years is not a long runway when you are talking about capital investment, procurement, installation, and commissioning. The quiet period is the planning period.
Right now is quiet.